THE END OF OIL AGE: MY STANCE

On August 28, 1859, George Bissell and Edwin L. Drake made the first successful use of a drilling rig on a well drilled to produce oil, at a site on Oil Creek near Titusville, Pennsylvania. (Wiki)

The past 100 years have been plagued with oil shocks, oil spills, and nations warring over independent access to the black gold and dominance over discovered nations.

Just to be objective, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in her 2011 monthly review asserted that, fossil fuels accounted for approximately 82% of the world's primary energy use, with just oil alone accounting for 33%, but this is expected to fall to 78% by 2040. These statistics had shown that there will be a shift in investment from fossil related products, just as most developed oil producing nations have taken the lead, this decline in fossil fuel could also be attributed to the quest for sustainable and climate-friendly energy, it becomes a fast call on developing oil producing nations like Nigeria to fasten her seatbelt against the tottering predictions.

BP's annual report on "proved global oil reserves" claimed that as at the end of 2013, Earth has nearly 1.688 trillion barrels of crude, which will last 53.3 years at current rates of extraction and consumption of 99 million barrels daily. We can't also deny the obvious fact that Oil is the biggest single component of the energy industry and the world’s most traded commodity, with about $1.5trn-worth exported each year.

However, whether or not oil will meet its end, personally, as a graduate student of chemical engineering with a knowledge of fossil formation is not a discourse of outright extinction but more of a strategic alternative shift. The danger is not an imminent collapse in demand for oil but the start of a shift in investment strategies away from finding new sources of oil to finding alternatives to it, it becomes more convincing as the costs of renewable energy fall with advancement in its technology, this will inevitably plunge the oil and cause a swift transition to renewable energy.

Deep insights of fossil formation suggest that we might not run out of fossils in any near time but we should take into cognizance that the stone age came to an end not for a lack of stones, and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.

Wind, solar and geothermal energy are increasingly becoming fast growing rivals to fossil fuel and if concerns for climate change intensify, the transformation of the world oil market could be even faster. According to Bloomberg report, Oil's share of the market for electricity generation and heating is already less than 20 percent globally, and that could shrink further because of the rise of renewable energy.

Rabah Arezki, head of commodities at the IMF, says the world may be “at the onset of the biggest disruption in oil markets ever”.

Renewables account for 24% of just electricity in 2014, with 17% accounted by hydropower, rising from 18% in 2007 and 21% in 2012 (Centre for climate and energy solutions, 2014). The IEA projected that renewables would reach 37% of global power generation by 2040. The costs of wind and solar technologies have fallen rapidly and are expected to continue to drop. The cost of producing electricity from solar power has fallen by 80 percent since 2008 and from wind power by 60 percent. Unsubsidized solar and wind energy, already competitive in 30 countries, is projected by the World Economic Forum to become cheaper than coal and natural gas in more than 60 percent of the world nations in the next few years. Even without further technological advances, the penetration of renewables will redirect energy investments. Air pollution and congestion in big cities are pushing countries like China and India to look for alternatives to petrol and diesel as transport fuels. Car firms like Tesla, Chevrolet and Nissan have announced plans for long-range electric vehicles selling, with subsidies, for around $30,000, making them more affordable.

Though we might be somewhat uncertain as to the forward or backward trajectory of oil prices, but by 2040 with the current trend, oil will be much cheaper than it is today, which will not be unconnected to strategic investments on climate-friendly, sustainable, renewable and cheap alternative energy.

Saudi Arabia which is the world largest oil producer and exporter that accounts for one-fifth of the world's oil proven reserve had just been confirmed by the economist that they've begun plan for an economy less dependent on oil, and announced that it would partially privatize Aramco (world most profitable company). Other Middle Eastern producers have enthusiastically embraced solar power. There is no greener light than this.

Conclusively, I would like to submit that the question of the oil age depleting to a total extinction either now or centuries to come is chiefly a discourse of redirection of focus to sustainable and environmental alternative other than the nonexistent of fossils, just as we have long advanced over the stone age without recording the non-existent of stones, fossils will remain and oil won’t extinct a clearer picture will be created by 2040.

Ohanwe, Emmanuel. I.

Convener, Rising African Ambassadors,

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